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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.