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Just 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – going beyond who would win citywide, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious while missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of votes added later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and residents squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump last year backed the progressive now. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the record participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it because afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. The independent kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. However no, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. And also, you have newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see more of that – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.