Day-to-Day Murders in the nation Fall 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Statistics

The average figure of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new administrative figures. But, security analysts have cautioned that homicide data could fail to signal improved national security.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in November as opposed to nearly 87 when the President assumed the presidency in the previous September. This information was delivered by the director of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded in these months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that last month the least amount of murders were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, alongside the administration's highly military operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate soar in the past few years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over 4x greater than the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an ostensibly sharper reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the President said: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

But, security analysts urged caution that relying on homicide statistics to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is notably true given the uptick in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for assessing the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to correctly recognize and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly an issue because it might mask days when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can point to the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet despite these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the country to voice their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to construct a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas said.